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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.