War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".